Monday, May 28, 2012

Posts in this page

1) One stop informative site for Investor and Traders http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/
2) Diffent parameters considered for long term investment
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/value-picking/
3) For detailed analysis on P/E http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/value-picking/pe/
4) For detailed analysis on P/B
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/value-picking/share-pricebook-value-pb/
5) For detailed analysis on Return on capital employed( ROCE )
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/value-picking/return-on-capital-employed-roce/
6)  For detailed analysis on Return on Networth RONW or ROE
,http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/value-picking/return-on-net-worth-ronw/
7) for information on Options trading http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/options/
8) for various bullish option strategies
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/options/bullish-option-strategies/
9) For various technical indicators http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/technical-analysis/
10) For Candle Stick PAtterns
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/technical-analysis/candlestick-patterns/
11) For Fibonacci Retracement Calculator
http://bullsandbearsinfo.com/technical-analysis/fibonacci-retracements/

Monday, February 13, 2012

What does Increase/ Decrease in OI and Cost of Carry means

1. An Increase in Open-Interest with an Increase in cost-of-carry indicates accumulation of long -position, which means that the price of the underlying is likely to go up in the next few trading sessions.

2. An Increase inopen-interest witha decrease in cost-of-carry indicates addition of short positions,which means that the price of the underlying is likely to go down in the next few trading sessions.

3. Similarly, a fall in open-Interest accompanied by a rise in cost-of-carry indicates closure of short positions, which occurs when the market moves against a trader's exisiting short positon, thereby triggering his stop-loss. This means that the stock is not likely to fall and may witness upside in the next few trading sessions.

4. Likewise, a fall in both the open interest and cost-of-carry indictes closures of long positions,whcih occures when the market moves against a trader's existing long possition, thereby triggering his stop-loss.This means that the stock is not likely to observe further upsides and is likely to witness a fall in the next few trading session

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

What is Return On Capital Employed ( ROCE ) and what you should derive from it for value picking?

A ratio that indicates the efficiency and profitability of a company's capital investments.
                                 Earnings
  ROCE =    -------------------------------------------      X 100    
                          Capital Employed
         The numerator is Earnings before Interest & Tax. It is net revenue after all the operating expenses are deducted
         The denominator (capital employed) denotes sources of funds such as equity and short-term debt financing which is used for the day-to-day running of the company. Capital Employed is represented as total assets minus current liabilities. In other words, it is the value of the assets that contribute to a company’s ability to generate revenue
ROCE value from Finance sheet tells us …
          It is a useful measurement for comparing the relative profitability of companies
          ROCE does not consider profit margins (percentage of profit) alone but also considers the amount of capital utilized for those profits to happen
          It is possible that a company’s profit margin is higher than that of another company, but its ability to get better return on its capital may be lower
          ROCE should always be higher than the cost of borrowing
          An increase in the company’s borrowings will put an additional debt burden on the company and will reduce shareholders’ earnings
          So, as a thumb rule, a  ROCE of 20% or more is considered very good
          If a company has a low ROCE, it means that it is using its resources inefficiently, even if its profit margin is high.
Drawbacks of ROCE
         The main drawback of ROCE is that it measures return against the book value of assets in the business. As these are depreciated the ROCE will increase even though cash flow has remained the same. Thus, older businesses with depreciated assets will tend to have higher ROCE than newer, possibly better businesses. In addition, while cash flow is affected by inflation, the book value of assets is not. Consequently revenues increase with inflation while capital employed generally does not (as the book value of assets is not affected by inflation).

What are ESOPS , and why your Employer issue them ?

An Employee Stock Option (ESOP) Plan is when the company offers its shares to the employees. An ESOP is nothing but an option to buy the company's share at a certain price. This could either be at the market price (price of the share currently listed on the stock exchange), or at a preferential price (price lower than the current market price). If the firm has not yet gone public (shares are not listed on any stock exchange), it could be at whatever price the management fixes.
2. Why your Employer offer an ESOP to you?
Retention is the pre-dominant objective. The ESOP trend started somewhere in the late 1990s, when we also saw the emergence of new entrepreneurs and many venture-funded companies. In many cases, there were also management buyouts. Essentially, the investors hired key executives and in order to get them equity in the company, ESOP was the ideal way, wherein they did not put in money initially but they did get options that were at a discount. So they could get shares in the company at a lower price than the investors. For established companies, retention is the main objective and for start-ups it is a way to get a management team in place. It is also something like a joining bonus in case the employee who joins had stock options in his previous company. You have to compensate him, because he foregoes the gains he made there. Just like you match the salary, you also match the stock options.
Typically, retention works where the unvested options are more than the vested options. Employees should have something to look forward to. If ESOP is like a one-time grant, after two years when the options vest, there is nothing that the employee will look forward to. Companies offer their employees shares because it is considered that having a stake in the company would increase loyalty and motivation substantially.
What are the tax implications of ESOPs?
FBT as a tax is on the company, so the responsibility is on the company to pay but specific with ESOPs, the law also gives authority to the company to pass it on. So in our experience almost 100% of the companies have passed on the tax impact to their employees. Before FBT came in, the ESOP gains were virtually tax-free. The kind of gains employees were making was very noticeable, so the tax was long overdue. But the real impact of FBT is much less than 33%

Friday, September 9, 2011

Introduction to Moving Averages, Oscillators and how they works

All oscillators essentially tell us the same thing; how price has performed over a specific time. At first, oscillators appear to be the perfect stock or index trading tool because so often they give excellent buy and sell signals. But, the more you use oscillators, the more you realize that oscillators give an equal number of false signals. An oscillator actually measures the momentum of data, whether it is price, volume, or opens interest. An oscillator will help show the speed at which the information is changing. Thus, it can also define over-bought or over-sold areas. The reason people have continued interest using oscillators is that they have the capability to give indications in advance of market turning points.. oscillators lead, sometimes they lead far too early and instead of buying a bottom, you are buying falling daggers and getting sliced up. Even the best oscillators consistently give premature buy and sell signals…The largest failure of oscillators is their inability to deal correctly with the time cycles involved…. If you use a 7-day average, you will quickly find that the maximum move you are going to catch is one that lasts somewhere in the area of 3 1/2 to 9 days. In other words, the type of moves the oscillator catches cannot, by definition, be much longer than the time period measured in the oscillator.
One thing noticed is that the traditional short term oscillators, such as those featured in most trading and investing books, will turn very positive at the start of a major upmove in the market but quickly show divergence and overbought readings, causing most traders to sell short somewhere after the first leg of a bull market. They then take a short position on the market and hold that short position in one form or another, actual outright short or afraid to purchase, for the next three or four legs of the bull market. That can be a costly experience. This happens because the time measurements in the oscillators they are following are too short-term in nature to catch a major move. Time is one of the most critical elements.. three time cycles that generally have been the most dominant time cycles in the market short term 7days/medium term 14 days/ longterm time 28days .
There will be two requirements for a buy and sell signal to execute a market position using the oscillator.  first requirement is that we have a price divergence from the oscillator. In the case of a buy we must have had a lower low in price that was not matched by a lower low in the oscillator. In the case of a sell we must have had a higher high in price that was not matched by the oscillator. Second requirement is, await a trend break in the Oscillator to produce the actual signal.
A moving average is a line drawn on a stock chart representing the average price of a stock over a given period. They smooth out the gyrations in the stock price so that the trend becomes more obvious. The most common types of moving averages are the SMA (Simple Moving Average) and the EMA (Exponential Moving Average).The SMA takes a stock’s prices over a given period and averages those prices. A line is then drawn to represent the average price over time. Simple Moving Averages are slow to react to recent price changes. An Exponential Moving Average is calculated in a similar manner to the SMA except that the EMA places more weight on recent prices. This means that they react more quickly than SMAs to recent price action.
Two important things to realize about moving averages, no matter what type you are considering, they are lagging indicators. They show you where the price has been. They don’t predict future price movements. They only work in trending markets where there is a clear and distinct trend. They don’t work in ranging markets where the price is bouncing up and down between support and resistance levels.

Regarding “trending” and “ranging” stocks: Some traders use an indicator called ADX (Average Directional Index) to determine if a stock is “trending” or “ranging”. Moving averages help you to identify the direction of the trend. Stock prices can only move three ways – up, down, or sideways. We are only interested in stock prices that are going up for “long trades”, or down for “short trades”. Trend strength can be indicated with moving averages according to the angle of the slope. A steeper slope means a stronger trend.If you use two moving averages on the same chart, one slow and the other one fast, you can get an idea of the strength of the trend by observing how far apart the two moving averages spread as they rise. Two very common MAs are the 50-day and 200-day. The 50-day (the faster MA) represents the intermediate-term trend and the 200-day (the slower MA) represents the long-term trend. If both MAs are rising and pulling apart then the trend is strong.
The intermediate- and long-term trends are the most important. 50-day and 200-day MAs are adequate for determining the state of the market. Before buying/trading a particular stock, part of your trading plan might insist on the overall market that you’re investing/trading in be above rising 50-day and 200-day MAs. You may also want to see that the two MAs are spreading apart (indicating trend strength).Trading in the direction of the overall market increases your chances of a successful trade. Monitoring the dominant market trends is part of a trader’s due diligence.